The Hidden Winners of the Global Commodities War
- Editor
- Nov 11
- 2 min read
As geopolitical tensions and fears of war escalate, the race for strategic raw materials has reached a fever pitch among the world’s major power blocs. Commodity giants such as Glencore and Trafigura are cashing in on global scarcity, posting record-breaking profits that underscore their growing dominance in the global supply chain.
Traders Thrive Amid Geopolitical Turmoil
A recent Bloomberg article confirms that the world’s top metal traders are among the biggest beneficiaries of today’s geopolitical volatility. Glencore reported an EBIT of $1.57 billion in its 2025 half-year results, while Trafigura posted a net half-year profit of $1.52 billion — a boom year for both.
These profits are not merely the result of market luck. Over the past decade, the leading commodity traders have strategically positioned themselves at the intersection of geopolitics and the energy transition. By controlling key supply routes, investing in refineries and storage hubs, and leveraging deep market intelligence, they have turned volatility into a profit engine.
Increasingly, their strategy also includes acquiring critical infrastructure and industrial assets that secure long-term access to essential resources. The controversial takeover of zinc producer Nyrstar by Trafigura stands as a prime example — a move that gave the trading house near-total control over a crucial link in Europe’s metals supply chain.
Critical Minerals: The New Global Arms Race
For anyone following global resource politics, the extraordinary profits made by commodity traders come as no surprise. The importance of critical metals—essential for future technologies, weapons systems, and defense applications—has surged dramatically in recent months.
On the commodities market, the law of supply and demand reigns supreme. Yet a paradox emerges: only months ago, Trafigura sought government support for its allegedly struggling mining operations at Nyrstar in Australia. Now, the same company reports record downstream trading profits from the very products mined there. How can calls for state aid be reconciled with such booming results?
Concentration of Power and Transparancy
Governments, in their scramble to secure future supplies, may be unwittingly turning themselves into pawns of an oligopoly—a handful of trading houses that dominate global commodity flows. From their boardrooms, these traders can shape global markets, tilting the balance of power among the U.S., China, Russia, and Europe.
Unlike other corporate giants, commodity traders remain largely invisible to the public eye. Structured as sprawling, opaque networks of offshore entities, firms like Glencore and Trafigura operate in jurisdictions known for minimal transparency. Who, if anyone, truly oversees these corporate octopuses whose tentacles extend deep into political, economic, and legal centers of power?
The time may have come for international oversight mechanisms capable of compelling full transparency about traders’ operations, profits, and sources of revenue. Governments, especially in Europe, should examine these actors with far greater scrutiny.
Europe’s Missing Playbook for Commodity Power
The deeper question is how Europe should engage with companies like Trafigura, whose reputations are marred by recurring corruption scandals. While big tech firms are fined billions for regulatory breaches, traders—operating largely below the radar—face little consequence. Governments often hesitate to act for fear of industrial relocation or supply shortages.
It’s time for Europe to stop merely reacting—and start setting the rules in the market for critical raw materials. At the very least, the EU should advocate for the creation of an international supervisory body overseeing the small but powerful club of commodity traders that increasingly shapes the world’s economic and geopolitical landscape.
